Oil-spill risk analysis for the Gulf of Mexico (proposed sales 94, 98, and 102) Outer Continental Shelf lease area. Final report

This report summarizes results of an oil-spill risk analysis conducted for the proposed Gulf of Mexico OCS Lease Sales 94, 98, and 102. The object of the study was to determine relative risks associated with oil-and-gas production in different regions of the proposed lease area. The study was done for consideration in the Environmental Impact Statement prepared for the lease area by the Minerals Management Service, and to aid in the final selection of tracts to be offered for sale. For the most likely find volume scenario, the proposed lease offering will result in an estimated 0.15 billion barrels of oil being found and produced over a period spanning 18 years. There is a 75% chance that no spills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land. Over the 18-year period used for the most likely find scenario, the mean number of spills estimated to occur from the proposal is less than 5% of that estimated from importing crude oil by tanker.