Estimation of an upper limit on prehistoric peak ground acceleration using the parameters of intact speleothems in Hungarian caves

The examination of speleothems in the Hajnoczy and Baradla caves (northeastern Hungary) allows estimating an upper limit for horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by paleoearthquakes. The density, the Young’s modulus and the tensile failure stress of the samples originating from a broken speleothem have been measured in a laboratory, whereas the natural frequency of intact speleothems was determined by in situ observations. The value of horizontal ground acceleration resulting in failure, the natural frequency and the inner friction coefficient of speleothems were assessed by theoretical calculations. The ages of the samples taken from a stalagmite 5.1 m in height (Baradla cave) have been determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry analysis and alpha spectrometry. The measured ages fall between 140,000 and 70,000 years; therefore, we assume the speleothem has not been changed since the end of this time interval. According to our modeling results, this speleothem has not been excited by a horizontal acceleration higher than 0.05 g during the last 70,000 years.