Models of regeneration, tree growth, and current and potential ranges of tree and mammal species in the Eastern U.S.

An environmentally responsive, mechanistic regeneration simulator should simulate important ecological relationships and disturbance effects. Development of such a regeneration simulator is complex because of the many attributes that characterize reproductive strategies and the importance of forest history and disturbance in determining the composition of the next forest. We are constructing a model of tree regeneration based on the requirements of different tree species and the potential pathways by which available species might regenerate. This rule-based Mechanistic Origination Model (MOM) combined with a gap-phase model that includes disturbance processes (Phase 2) will be used to predict the migration of tree species for the central hardwood region of the United States, and we will progressively apply the same techniques to other regions (eg., northern hardwoods).