Medium and long-term prediction of river runoff at Yichang with joint principal component analysis

Medium and long-term prediction of river runoff is crucial to water resources planning and management,and reservoir and power plant regulations.This paper focuses on such prediction of the runoff at Yichang station by using data of rainfall,runoff and meteorology,with the methods of principal component analysis and climate factors teleconnection.The results show that good predictions can be achieved by adopting local regression of the runoff and choosing the joint principal component of precipitation in Asia area as a runoff predictor.