The Role of Democratic Uncertainty in the Interplay Between Transitional Justice and Democratisation

This chapter utilises a very basic rational choice account to understand the role that democratic uncertainty plays in the mutually reinforcing relation between transitional justice and democratic transition. Rather than relying on structural explanations alone, it argues that people are not indifferent toward regime type. Rather, when faced with identical preexisting conditions, their support for democracy will increase as their perception of democratic uncertainty increases. As such, understanding the feedback loop between democratisation and transitional justice may be influenced by democratic uncertainty in two ways. First, efforts to increase democratic uncertainty, such as institutional reform, may ameliorate preexisting conditions that negatively impact transitional justice initiatives. Second, successful transitional justice should increase democratic uncertainty, for example, by increasing people’s confidence in the potential for democratic change, and thus foster the potential for such transitions to thrive and endure.