Predictive information in corporate bond yields

Abstract We document strong evidence of the cross-sectional predictability of corporate bond returns based on a set of yield predictors that capture the information in the yields of past 1, 3, 6, 12, 24, 36, and 48 months. Return predictability is economically and statistically significant, and is robust to various controls. The uncovered predictability presents the most pronounced anomaly in the corporate bond literature that challenges rational pricing models.