Determinantes del tipo real de cambio en la Argentina : una aproximación empírica (1961-2014)

This paper estimates a long run behavioral equilibrium real effective exchange rate in Argentina. The econometric analysis estimates a vector error correction model. Regression results show that the significant variables to explain the long-run behavior of the real effective exchange rate are government expenditures and terms of trade. The coefficients of the fundamentals in the model are used to identify episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation of the real effective exchange rate. On the basis of the fundamentals, the real effective exchange rate in 2014 of Argentina was found to be significantly appreciated with respect to the estimated equilibrium level.