Coastal Vulnerability under Extreme Weather

Communities like Santa Barbara, California appear to have it all – beaches, mountains, sunshine, moderate temperatures, small urban population, and close proximity to the large metropolis of Los Angeles. What is not to love? Climate change, drought, flammable vegetation, and naturally prevailing weather conditions make a significant portion of the population vulnerable in many ways. Earthquakes and tsunamis might come to mind, but perhaps more of a threat is fire and/or flooding at, on or near the wildland-urban interface. The recent Thomas fire in December of 2017 and subsequent flooding, debris flow and mudslides in Montecito that followed in January of 2018 highlight what coastal vulnerability means under the new normal of extreme wildfire and flooding danger for this region. This paper discusses the unique hazards along with local weather conditions that contribute to vulnerability. We then detail spatial analytics to assess, model and predict risks. Insights are offered for the Santa Barbara region associated with extreme weather vulnerabilities.