Long-term economic and environmental consequences of phasing out nuclear electricity

This study is one of a series of studies prepared by different modeling groups for Resources for the Future concerning the potential energy/economic/environmental impacts that would result from a policy decision to halt any further construction of nuclear power plants. Wherever possible, each modeling group used the same set of model input-parameter values to estimate the impacts. This study is based on the use of an integrated modeling system incorporating the Data Resources Inc. Long-Term Interindustry Transactions Model (LITM), the Brookhaven Dynamic Energy System Optimization Model (BESOM), and several groups of interface equations. This model system is first described and then used to estimate four alternative energy/economic/environmental futures. In the Base Case scenario, it is assumed that growth in the nuclear sector will not be constrained by safety or security considerations, so that, when economical, nuclear reactors will build up at reasonable rates, including advanced uranium and breeder reactors, starting in 2000. In each of three alternative scenarios, future nuclear capacity is limited to that capacity which is either currently in operation or under construction, while coal production is permitted to expand, at most, by 5.4%/yr, 7.2%/yr, and 3.0%/yr.