Living on the edge: do central and marginal populations of plants differ in habitat suitability?

The performance of populations at the edge of specie’s distribution range may differ substantially from central populations. Here, we develop a modelling framework to estimate ecological niches (i.e. climatic) of four locally endangered plant species and measure the distance of marginal (geographically) populations to the species’ niche centroid in order to analyse whether marginal populations are outside of the optimal ecological niche of each species. Our results show that for three of the four studied species, which have their populations located at the margins of their distribution ranges, are also at the margins of their climate gradients. These results would support the hypothesis that marginality within the set of habitable conditions (i.e. ecological niche) may represent an important determinant on performance of some plant populations, as well as a plausible explanation to the degree of stagnancy or regression experienced by species in those regions where their populations are at the margin of their ecological niche and/or they are restricted to microrefugia with ecological conditions very different from those around them. Finally, this study aims to be a theoretical base from which to advance on, including other types of factors (e.g. biotic interactions, topography, human influence and population fluctuations through time), which will allow for a better understanding of the complex network of factors that occur in marginal plant populations.