A market potential and economical aspects of a future hydrogen supply for the F.R.G.

Abstract Based on a scenario for energetic and non-energetic demand in the F.R.G. up to the year 2030, we calculated potentials for non-fossil-made hydrogen to substitute or support hydrocarbons such as oil products and natural gas. The potential demand of hydrogen as a raw material was found to be about 20 MTCE in 2030. The market would be in chemistry, fuel production and iron and steel industry. The potential for hydrogen as an energy carrier is roughly three times higher. An investigation of the growth of utility capacity showed that after the year 1995 nuclear plants could also be introduced for medium load electricity production. The use of these plants for off-peak electrolysis would give rise to hydrogen production sufficient to cover the potential demand of hydrogen as a raw material. This off-peak hydrogen can be produced economically compared to natural gas even at today's level of energy costs. With a real increase of prices for imported hydrocarbons in the order of 1–3%/y, other nuclear technologies for additional hydrogen production (for example thermochemical processes) might reach an economical breakeven point at the beginning of the next century. Installation of nuclear power for this purpose could supply the energy market with 20 MTCE of hydrogen in 2030. This hydrogen could be mixed with the natural gas and transported in the network already existing for gas distribution with only moderate modifications on network and burners.