Development of prognostic model for patients at CKD stage 3a and 3b in South Central China using computational intelligence.

BACKGROUND Chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 3 was divided into two subgroups by eGFR (45 mL/ min 1.73 m2). There is difference in prevalence of CKD, racial differences, economic development, genetic, and environmental backgrounds between China and Western countries. METHODS We used a computational intelligence model (CKD stage 3 Modeling, CSM) to distinguish CKD stage 3 with CKD stage 3a/3b by data distribution rules, pearson correlation coefficient (PCC), spearman correlation (SCC) analysis, logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and neural network (Nnet) to develop Prognostic Model for patients with CKD stage 3a/3b in South Central China. Furthermore, we used RF to discover risk factors of progression of CKD stage 3a and 3b to CKD stage 5. 1090 cases of CKD stage 3 patients in Xiangya Hospital were collected. Among them, 455 patients progressed to CKD stage 5 in a median follow-up of 4 years (IQR 4.295, 4.489). RESULTS We found that the common risk factors for progression of CKD stage 3a/3b to CKD stage 5 included albumin, creatinine, total protein, etc. Proteinuria, direct bilirubin, hemoglobin, etc. accounted for the progression from stage CKD stage 3a to stage 5. The risk factors for CKD stage 3b progression to stage 5 included low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes, eosinophil percentage, etc. CONCLUSIONS: CSM could be used as a point-of-care test to screen patients at high risk for disease progression, might allowing individualized therapeutic management.