Time to AIDS from 1992 to 1999 in HIV-1-infected subjects with known date of infection.

Abstract To estimate the change in AIDS incubation time during three periods characterized by different availability of antiretroviral treatments, data from the French Hospital Database on HIV of 4702 HIV-1-positive subjects with a documented date of infection were analyzed. Times from seroconversion to AIDS were compared in three periods: period 1 from January 1992 to June 1995 (monotherapy); period 2 from July 1995 to June 1996 (dual therapy); and period 3 from July 1996 to June 1999 (triple therapy). Nonparametric survival analyses were performed to account for staggered entries in the database and during each period. From periods 1 to 3, antiretroviral treatments were initiated earlier after infection, more subjects were treated, and the nature of regimens changed (25.6% of subjects were treated with monotherapy in period 1, 34.6% were treated with dual therapy in period 2, and 53.4% were treated with triple therapy in period 3). Compared with period 1, the relative hazard (RH) of AIDS was 0.31 in period 3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.24-0.39). When comparing period 3 with period 2, the RH of AIDS was 0.36 (CI: 0.29-0.45). Assuming a log normal distribution, the median time to AIDS was estimated as 8.0 years in period 1 (CI: 6.0-10.6), 9.8 years in period 2 (CI: 8.5, 11.2), and 20.0 years in period 3 (CI: 17.1-23.3). This lengthening in time to AIDS from 1992 to 1999 was particularly marked in the period after the introduction of triple therapy, including protease inhibitors.