Conservative Hopes for Off-Year Elections

This November, voters will settle political battles in New Jersey and Virginia, two states with little in common, it seems, except disgruntled automobile owners. Here's an overview of how these gubernatorial races might advance the cause of conservatism. New Jersey's Promise Keeper Republican governor Christine Todd Whitman's promenade across the national stage after her election four years ago was accompanied by a chorus of praise from "big tent" conservatives. Since then, the chorus has shrunk to an occasional soloist. After staking out a radical pro-choice position on the abortion issue and paying for spending increases by borrowing from the state pension plan, "Christie" Whitman will have to seek re-election without the enthusiastic support of social or economic conservatives. At press time she was leading her Democratic opponent, state senator and Woodbridge mayor James McGreevey, by about 15 points in independent polls. Most observers believe she will win, but by a smaller margin than anyone would have predicted a year or two ago. McGreevey, who supported the massive state tax hikes that cost Democratic governor Jim Florio re-election in 1993, will run a strong campaign. He is a traditional liberal backed by a smooth party machine, and he can count on the support of unionized, working-class Catholic voters in a state that voted overwhelmingly for Reagan twice in the 1980s and for Clinton twice in the 1990s. His electoral base, central New Jersey, is rich with minority and urban voters. Unfortunately for conservatives, McGreevey is more liberal than the Democrat he beat in the primary, which gives Whitman plenty of room to campaign on centrist positions. Unlike 1993, when Florio's broken promise on taxes incensed his detractors and numbed his supporters, this election offers no singularly motivating campaign issue. Whitman's slogan, "Promises Made, Promises Kept," implies that she plans to make her income-tax cut the centerpiece of her campaign. Although the Right criticized her for limiting the full benefits of her 30 percent tax cut to lower- and middle-income New Jerseyans, Whitman did manage to fulfill her promise by 1995, a year ahead of schedule. Her lesser-known accomplishments include eliminating the state's department of higher education, ending more than 4,000 unnecessary state jobs, and trimming her own staff and budget by more than 20 percent. But will voters give her credit for it? A Quinnipiac College poll taken in late June indicates a majority of voters disapprove of her record on taxes. This is due in part to the fact that property tax rates have risen during her term. These taxes are levied by municipal governments, not the state, but Democrats attribute their rise to Whitman's cutback of state aid to towns and counties, and the charges seem to stick. Even worse news for Whitman is that 70 percent of voters fault her handling of auto-insurance reform. New Jersey drivers pay the highest premiums in the nation and have been asking their politicians for relief since at least the 1980s. Whitman had hoped to make insurance reform her heroic deed of the year, but the Republican-controlled legislature didn't come through for her this time. She wound up settling for a skeletal insurance reform bill as state legislators scurried out of Trenton for recess this June. While conservatives within the state and around the country laud her tax cuts, they bemoan her resistance to cutting spending as well. By postponing part of this year's payment to the state pension fund to balance the budget, Whitman allowed Democrats and the New York Times to decry a "pension-fund raid." But few conservatives or Republicans have defended her. Says Richard Pezzullo, the Conservative Party's candidate for governor, "You don't borrow on your Visa card to invest in the stock market." John Sheridan, the president of New Jersey Citizens for Tax Reform, supports Whitman tepidly because she's "as conservative as it gets in New Jersey. …