Connection between variations of the stress-strain state of the Earth’s crust and seismic activity: The example of Southern California

A three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California, including mountain relief, fault tectonics, and characteristic internal borders, such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface, was created. The initial stress state of the model is determined by the gravitational force and horizontal tectonic movement, established on basis of GPS observations. Monitoring of variations in the stress state of the Earth’s crust and lithosphere, which are generated by seismic processes, has shown that the model enables us to predict an increase of seismic activity in a region and to mark the places in which average earthquakes can occur in the following two weeks.