Patrones y predicciones epidemiológicas del SIDA en México

The purpose of this paper is to present predictions of rile AJDS dynamics in Mexico, That is why the authors describe the AIDS patterns in different geographical areas =that permit to raise useful hypothesis for epidemiologic predictions-: and present the analysis of AIDS cases in Mexico and the results of the serologic studies done in selected groups, that i/lustrate the trends and the prevalence of the infection, respectively, The case analysis [or risk factors indicare that there is an upward trend in the heterosexual and perinatal groups. and a modera te increase in the homosexual group, even thougb the latter is still the predominant group in our country, The cases due to blood transmision represent twice the percentage of this type of cases in the United States. The ratio ma/e: female changed from 1:36 in December 1985 10 1:15 in January 1988, suggesting the existence of a higher number of infected cases among women. The seroepidemiotogic surveys done in our country 10 determine the prevalenee of HIV infection in seleeted groups showed interesting results: there is a low prevalenee of trfection among female prostitutes (Iess than 1%), in contrast with the hig~ prevalenee among male prostitutes (16%) and homosexuals (3 10 33%); and a high prevalenee among payed blood donors (7%) in comparison 10 voluntary donors (Iess than 0.1 %). The estimates of the number of infected individualsfor 1988 rangefrom31 600 to 97 700, taking into consideration that there are 28 to 87 infected individuals per AIDS case. The predietionsfor accumulated cases for 1991 in Mexico indicate that there may be 64 304 to 76602 cases at the beginning of the following decade. Key