Can American Joint Committee on Cancer prognostic groups be individualized in patients undergoing surgery for Stage IV invasive upper tract Urothelial Carcinoma

Purpose: We explored whether the modified American Joint Committee on Cancer tumor-node-metastasis prognostic stage group IV can be individualized in a large population-based cohort of surgically treated invasive upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) patients. Methods: Invasive UTUC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database (2004-2015) were screened for inclusion. A total of 10,482 eligible cases were identified. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) after surgery was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier plots. Results: According to the most recent pathological prognostic group classification, the 5-year mortality rates of T4NxM0 (n=493), TxN1M0 (n=597), TxN2M0 (n=424) and pTxNxM1 (n=677) patients were 41.1% (95% CI 35.2% to 47.0%), 38.6% (95% CI 33.1% to 44.1%), 40.4% (95% CI 33.0% to 47.8%) and 14.2% (95% CI 9.9% to 18.5%), respectively (T4N0M0 vs. TxNxM1, P<0.001; TxN1M0 vs. TxNxM1, P<0.001; TxN2M0 vs. TxNxM1, P<0.001). Stage IV tumors were subdivided on the basis of the mortality data (Modification 1): stage IVa tumors were considered nonmetastatic (T4NxM0, TxN1-2M0; 5-year CSS 39.9%), and stage IVb tumors were considered metastatic (pTxNxM1; 5-year CSS 14.2%). Stage IV tumors were also subdivided according to the grade classification (Modification 2): stage IVa tumors were considered low grade (T4NxM0, TxN1-2M0, TxNxM1; G1-2; n=141), and stage IVb tumors were considered metastatic (T4NxM0, TxN1-2M0, TxNxM1; G3-4; n=2050). The 5-year CSS rates for stage IVa and IVb patients were 76.3% (95% CI 68.7% to 83.9%) and 31.4% (95% CI 28.5% to 34.3%), respectively (P<0.001). Conclusions: Stage IV patients were stratified into two prognostically different risk groups depending on metastasis or grade. The subclassification of stage IV can increase the level of prognostic detail and individualize the prediction of survival in invasive UTUC patients.