Optimal Selection of Development Scheme of Water Resources by Ecological Grey Fuzzy Risk Analysis

Keywords: Water conservancy and hydropower engineering; ecological risk; fuzzy theory; grey correlation; ecological restoration; life cycle Abstract. Firstly, the fuzzy comprehensive is made for each risk factor of large-scale water conservancy and hydropower engineering in its life cycle's each stage, and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation vector is transformed into fuzzy scores, total risk of ecosystem in different development scale and value of risk factors in a life cycle each stage are calculated. Then, it is calculated that gray correlation degree of each stage and each risk factors by gray theory, and the key risk factors are determined according to the size of the correlation. Third, according to the risk of different ecosystem development scale, using the gray system theory, a relationship of reservoir normal water levels and ecological risk values is established, and prediction of ecological risk is made on the basis of this relationship. Finally, the development scale optimization model considering ecological restoration cost and ecological risk are established and are solved, water resources engineering optimal development scale is ascertained.