PREDICT: a diagnostic accuracy study of a tool for predicting mortality within one year: Who should have an advance healthcare directive?:

Background:CARING is a screening tool developed to identify patients who have a high likelihood of death in 1 year.Aim:This study sought to validate a modified CARING tool (termed PREDICT) using a population of patients presenting to the Emergency Department.Setting/participants:In total, 1000 patients aged over 55 years who were admitted to hospital via the Emergency Department between January and June 2009 were eligible for inclusion in this study.Design:Data on the six prognostic indicators comprising PREDICT were obtained retrospectively from patient records. One-year mortality data were obtained from the State Death Registry. Weights were applied to each PREDICT criterion, and its final score ranged from 0 to 44. Receiver operator characteristic analyses and diagnostic accuracy statistics were used to assess the accuracy of PREDICT in identifying 1-year mortality.Results:The sample comprised 976 patients with a median (interquartile range) age of 71 years (62–81 years) and a 1-year mortality of 23.4%...