Development of Drought Forecasting and Warning Technique in Basin

The purpose of drought forecasting and warning is to forecast and warn coming drought in advance and minimize damages from drought. Several indices have been utilized to show the drought severity. Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is the most famous index among them. PDSI, however, has a number of disadvantages such as it is ineffective in regions of predominantly irrigated agriculture and it cannot reflect current state of drought very well. The objective of the study is to develop the drought forecasting and warning technique by River and Palmer Drought Severity Index (RPDSI) which can reflect the aspects of water resources like river discharge and reservoir storage. RPDSI considering PDSI, river discharge and reservoir storage is an effective index that can represent drought quantitively in Korea. Also, exceedance probabilities based on RPDSI and existing data are utilized as criteria for issuing drought watch, warning, and emergency. In this study, the drought forecasting and warning system is applied to Ansungcheon basin by establishing the standard for issuing drought warning. It is found that the drought forecasting and warning system is able to forecast the drought of Ansungcheon basin properly.