Measurement and trend analysis of carbon emissions from construction land changes in Anhui in the recent 15 years——Based on STIRPAT model

The effect of the construction land change on carbon emissions is currently the research focus of the land use change.In the study,we analyze the dynamic characteristics of the construction land and the carbon emissions in Anhui Province from 1997 to 2011,based on Anhui Province Statistical Yearbook data,dynamic model of the use of the construction land and the IPCC carbon emission calculation method.The study reveals the marginal effect of the construction land on the carbon emissions by using the partial least squares regression method based on STIRPAT model and predicts the future carbon emissions using the SPSS software.The results show that both the area of construction land and amount of carbon emissions grow up.The construction land has an average annual expansion rate of 16.91% but the carbon emissions have an average annual growth rate of 6.61%.In addition,the construction land positively correlates with the carbon emissions significantly.The marginal elasticity coefficient of construction land on the carbon emissions is 0.1194.In the inertial profile,the carbon emissions of the construction land expansion will be 144724200t and 199303700 t in 2015 and 2020 respectively in Anhui Province.It is suggested to slow down the carbon emissions through policy regulation to control the expansion trends of the construction land.This study is of practical significance in identifying the trends of the carbon emissions in Anhui Province and guiding the land use plan.It also provides a reference to the paradigm study about the effect of construction land on carbon emissions in the provincial scale.