Assessment of Resilience in Desalination Infrastructure Using Semi-Markov Models

As the supply of desalinated water becomes significant in many countries, the reliable long-term operation of desalination infrastructure becomes paramount. As it is not realistic to build desalination systems with components that never fail, instead the system should be designed with more resilience. To answer the question how resilient the system should be, we present in this paper a quantitative approach to measure system resilience using semi-Markov models. This approach allows to probabilistically represent the resilience of a desalination system, considering the functional or failed states of its components, as well as the probability of failure and repair rates. As the desalination plants are connected with the end-user through water transportation and distribution networks, this approach also enables an evaluation of various network configurations and resilience strategies. A case study addressing a segment of the water system in Saudi Arabia is given with the results, benefits, and limitations of the technique discussed.