An operationally implementable model for predicting the effects of an infectious disease on a comprehensive regional healthcare system
2021
An operationally implementable predictive model has been developed to forecast the
number of COVID-19 infections in the patient population, hospital floor and ICU
censuses, ventilator and related supply chain demand. The model is intended for
clinical, operational, financial and supply chain leaders and executives of a
comprehensive healthcare system responsible for making decisions that depend on
epidemiological contingencies. This paper describes the model that was implemented
at NorthShore University HealthSystem and is applicable to any communicable
disease whose risk of reinfection for the duration of the pandemic is negligible.
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