МОДЕЛИ И СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ В ЭПИДЕМИОЛОГИИ ИНФЕКЦИОННЫХ ЗАБОЛЕВАНИЙ

The use of mathematical model based on assumption of heterogeneity of population in epidemiological studies of infectious diseases cause grave mistakes in assessment of transmission rate of infection and average incidence rate. For an accurate assessment of morbidity, we need models that take into account the structure of risk groups. In this case, the duration of cycles of multi-year oscillations for homogeneous and heterogeneous models is close, so it can be used to estimate the value of the contact number. In addition, models that do not take into account the finiteness of the population give an incorrect description of the dynamics of the incidence – in such models the incidence tends to a constant value. The reason for this lies in the fact that even for multimillion populations the dynamics of the number of infected people has a strong stochasticity, and to reproduce the actual dynamics of the epidemic process, it is necessary to use not deterministic but stochastic models.