Travel Time Reliability Measurement of Urban Rail Transit System Based on Kernel Density Estimation

Travel time reliability is of high importance for passengers and transit agencies in the urban rail transit system. The travel time reliability models of OD pairs, line and network were established, and a short discussion on influence factors of travel time reliability was provided. Based on the real urban rail AFC data, the distribution of travel time was analyzed and a methodology based on kernel density estimation was presented to evaluate travel time reliability. Beijing urban rail transit system was used as a case study. It concluded that the travel time reliability is related to journey distance, interchange times and travel time segment. Keywords-urban rail transit; travel time reliability; kernel density estimation