한국군의 모병제 전환 가능성 모색 :해외의 병역제도 전환 사례에 대한 동태적 SWOT 분석을 중심으로

The ROK Armed Forces have adopted a conscription system since the establishment of the Republic of Korea and have maintained a constant scale of troops. However, due to the declining population in the Korean society and the ongoing reduction of the troop size, it is expected that the conscription system will be difficult to continue in the future. In recent years, there has been an volunteer military system as an alternative to strengthening the combat power of Korean troops and pursuing qualitative development. However, there are many factors to be considered for the conversion of a conscription system. In this study, we conducted a dynamic SWOT analysis on the cases of overseas military service system conversion to evaluate the possibility of military service system conversion in Korean society. As for the overseas case, we analyzed various cases by analyzing the cases of USA and Germany as examples of volunteer military system success countries, cases of Taiwan and Sweden as examples of volunteer military system failing countries, and cases of Russia, Israel as examples of maintaining contries of conscription system. Through the analysis process, the social environment, the security environment, and the combat power, military resource size were adopted as important factors for the success of the volunteer military system.　The analysis of the circumstances of the ROK military and the comparison with the success factors led to the conclusion that ROK armed forces cannot execute the volunteer military system right now. Nonetheless, the volunteer military system is an indispensable system to implement someday. The internal and external situation of the ROK military will continue to change, and the implementation of the volunteer military system can be a way to maintain and develop the combat power of future ROK forces. Therefore, this study presented the strategies that ROK military could take for　the volunteer military system implementation through dynamic SWOT analysis, and opened up possibility of military system conversion.