Is the transition to formal leadership caused by trait extraversion? A counterfactual hazard analysis using two large panel datasets

Abstract Extraversion is a consistent predictor of informal leader emergence, however little is known about extraversion’s causal effect in terms of predicting the transition to formal leadership. Using two large household samples from Germany (Study 1, n1 = 6,709) and Australia (Study 2, n2 = 6,056), we test whether trait extraversion predicts the transition of employed persons into formal leadership positions. Using survival analysis with Cox proportional hazards regression within a non-linear generalised additive modelling (GAM) framework, we modelled the relationship between extraversion and the ‘hazard’ of transitioning into a formal leadership role. After controlling for sex, height, age, education and the other big five traits, we found that extraversion consistently predicted the hazard of transitioning into a formal leadership role over time. Given the importance of leadership to life outcomes, being more likely to transition into a formal leadership role may afford extraverts with considerable cumulative benefits over their career.