Heat stress will detrimentally impact future livestock production in East Africa

Climate change-induced increases in temperature and humidity are predicted to impact East African food systems, but the extent to which heat stress negatively affects livestock production in this region is poorly understood. Here we use ERA‐Interim reanalysis data to show that the frequency of ‘Severe/Danger’ heat events for dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, goats, swine and poultry significantly increased from 1981 to 2010. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 (under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 by the coordinated regional-climate downscaling experiment for Africa (CORDEX-AFRICA)), we show that the frequency of dangerous heat-stress conditions and the average number of consecutive days with heat stress events will significantly increase, particularly for swine and poultry. Our assessment suggests that 4–19% of livestock production occurs in areas where dangerous heat stress events are likely to increase in frequency from 2071 to 2100. With demand for animal products predicted to grow in East Africa, production-specific heat-stress mitigation measures and breeding programmes for increasing heat tolerance are urgently needed for future livestock sector productivity—and future food security—in East Africa. Demand for animal products in East Africa is projected to rise, but climate change-induced temperature increases will negatively impact livestock production. This modelling study quantifies the potential frequency and length of dangerous heat-stress events for the six main livestock types, identifies the regions that will be most affected and highlights the types of livestock that will be most at risk.