Predicting One-year Mortality After a “First” Hospitalization for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: An Eight-Variable Assessment Score Tool

ABSTRACTSeveral authors have studied predictors of outcomes following a hospitalization for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); however, few have reported outcomes following a first hospitalization for COPD. The objective is to develop a predictive mortality risk model in patients surviving a first hospitalization for COPD. This is a retrospective cohort study using linked administrative and clinical data. The cohort included 1129 patients of 40–84 years, discharged alive from a hospitalization for COPD in a regional hospital (Sherbrooke, Canada) between 04/2006 and 03/2013 and to whom were prescribed at least two COPD drugs during their hospitalization. One-year mortality was analysed using logistic regression on a derivation sample and validated on a testing sample. In total, 141 (12.5%) patients died within one year from discharge of their first hospitalization for COPD. Predictors were: older age (OR (95% CI): 1.055 (1.026–1.085)), male sex (OR (95% CI): 1.474 (0.921–2.358)), having a severe...