THE TRANSPORT FORECAST – AN IMPORTANT STAGE OF TRANSPORT MANAGEMENT

Objectives: The transport system is a powerful system with varying loads in operation coming from changes in freight and passenger traffic in different time periods. The variations are due to the specific conditions of organization and development of socio-economic activities. The causes of varying loads can be included in three groups: economic, technical and organizational. The assessing of transport demand variability leads to proper forecast and development of the transport system, knowing that the market price is determined on equilibrium between supply and demand. Methodology: The reduction of transport demand variability through different technical solutions, organizational, administrative, legislative leads to an increase in the efficiency and effectiveness of transport. For this, future developments in demand for the transport system through ex-ante demand that highlight various unexpressed travel needs, must be known.The paper presents a new way of assessing the future needs of transport through using mathematical models of transport demand forecasting. The areas of applicability of each model are identified and comparative considerations are made on predictive models. Results: The knowledge of the future evolution of transport demands undoubtedly leads to a better planning of the transport system resources and especially to the satisfaction of the requests addressed in higher quality of the service. The theoretical assertions are supported by a case study that exemplifies how to determine defining parameters and uses forecasting functions that have different mathematical expressions. Proposals for the practical use of these models are made, depending on the applicability area in the field of transport demand identification. The novelty of the paper including in comparison to the autors’ previous work: The work brings novelty a method of assessing future transport needs through dynamic series of different types and complexities that replace empirical techniques or which are based on past experience of managers in transport field. In most cases, planning is done empirically by using previous experiences that are often no longer relevant given that evolutions of socio-economic conditions have a pronounced dynamics. This paper aims to analyze, in an original approach, how a good transport forecast can lead to a better management in transport, with significant effects on transport demand full meeting in quality terms. Conclusion: The paper and the case study shows how dynamic series of statistics can be used to identify the size of future demand addressed to the transport system with significant implications in dimentioning the resources and the quality of service. Research results can be exploited by researchers and decision-makers in transport planning as well