On the precision of aero-thermal simulations for TMT

Environmental effects on the Image Quality (IQ) of the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT) are estimated by aero-thermal numerical simulations. These simulations utilize Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to estimate, among others, thermal (dome and mirror) seeing as well as wind jitter and blur. As the design matures, guidance obtained from these numerical experiments can influence significant cost-performance trade-offs and even component survivability. The stochastic nature of environmental conditions results in the generation of a large computational solution matrix in order to statistically predict Observatory Performance. Moreover, the relative contribution of selected key subcomponents to IQ increases the parameter space and thus computational cost, while dictating a reduced prediction error bar. The current study presents the strategy followed to minimize prediction time and computational resources, the subsequent physical and numerical limitations and finally the approach to mitigate the issues experienced. In particular, the paper describes a mesh-independence study, the effect of interpolation of CFD results on the TMT IQ metric, and an analysis of the sensitivity of IQ to certain important heat sources and geometric features.