Model of population dynamics of birds for the monitoring of floodplain ecosystems (Illustrated by the middle Ob). Communication 1

A model of the population dynamics of birds in the river floodplain is developed with the purpose to organize monitoring of the floodplain ecosystems, based on the principles of system dynamics formulated by Jay Forrester. We used the long-term observations ( 1977-2000) made in spring and summer in the floodplain of the middle Ob in the Kolpashevskii raion of Tomsk oblast, which helped to improve the model structure. The model is realized with the help of MATLAB 5.2.1 software. The modeling confirmed the hypothesis that hydrological regime is the main factor determining the dynamics and structure of birds population in the floodplain of the middle Ob.