Impact of Gulfstream-IV Dropsondes on Tropical Cyclone Prediction in a Regional OSSE System

AbstractAircraft reconnaissance missions remain the primary means of collecting direct measurements of marine atmospheric conditions affecting tropical cyclone formation and evolution. The National Hurricane Center tasks the NOAA G-IV aircraft to sample environmental conditions that may impact the development of a tropical cyclone threatening to make landfall in the United States or its territories. These aircraft data are assimilated into deterministic models and used to produce real-time analyses and forecasts for a given tropical cyclone. Existing targeting techniques aim to optimize the use of reconnaissance observations and partially rely on regions of highest uncertainty in the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Evaluating the potential impact of various trade-offs in the targeting process is valuable for determining the ideal aircraft flight track for a prospective mission.AOML’s Hurricane Research Division has developed a system for performing regional Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)...