A POSSIBLE FRAMEWORK FOR ESTIMATING THE EFFECT OF THE REPLACEMENT OF THE FAD MORATORIUM WITH A TIME-AREA CLOSURE ON CATCHES OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL TUNAS

1SUMMARY We used the ICCAT Task II catch and effort data to estimate expected changes in the catches of tropical tunas attributable to replacing the current moratorium with a time-area closure. The results indicate that catches of tropical tunas are expected to increase substantially if the timearea closure [04-01] replaces the current moratorium. Considering that the current ICCAT hypothesis is that purse seine fleet efficiency gains 3% per year, the net change could in fact be a large overall increase to levels above the pre-moratoria fishing mortality rate levels. RESUME