Spatial and temporal analysis of coffee wilt disease caused by Fusarium xylarioides in Coffea canephora

Coffee wilt disease (CWD) caused by Fusarium xylarioides, considered to be a soil-inhabiting fungus, is endemic in several African countries, affecting commercially important coffee species and causing serious economic losses. Coffee wilt disease development in naturally infected Coffea canephora fields at the Coffee Research Institute in Uganda was assessed from April 2001 to March 2006 to generate information about temporal and spatial spread of the disease. Maps of diseased trees were also generated from the data. Semi-variance analysis was performed on the data to show the spatio-temporal structure of disease. Host influence on the spatio-temporal structure was deduced from the distribution pattern of diseased and healthy trees and analysis of variance. Results show that the temporal disease epidemic progress was slow. The disease was found to spread from initial infections to healthy neighbouring trees, resulting in an aggregated pattern. An infected tree could infect up to three healthy trees away, in any direction. Disease foci formed and expanded with time, coalescing but punctuated in spots planted with resistant hosts. There were varying levels of susceptibility among host genotypes, affecting the rates and levels of epidemic development. The implications of the findings to the control of CWD are discussed.