LEAP 모형을 이용한 건축물의 온실가스 감축 시나리오 분석

This study is intended to set a greenhouse gas emission scenario based on green remodeling pilot project (Annex building of Seoul Customs Office) using LEAP model, a long-term energy plan analysis model, to calculate the energy saving and greenhouse gas emission till year 2035 as well as to analyze the effect of electric power saving cost. Total 4 scenarios were made, Baseline scenario, assuming the past trend is to be maintained in the future, green remodeling scenario, reflecting actual green remodeling project of Seoul Customs Office, behavior improvement and renewable energy supply, and Total scenario. According to the analysis result, the energy demand in 2035 of Baseline scenario was 6.1% decreased from base year 2013, that of green remodeling scenario was 17.5%, that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario was 21.1% and that of total scenario was 27.3%. The greenhouse emission of base year 2013 was 878.2 tCO₂eq, and it was expected 826.3 tCO₂eq, approx. 5.9% reduced, in 2035 by Baseline scenario. the cumulative greenhouse gas emission saving of the analyzing period were —26.5 tCO₂eq by green remodeling scenario, 2.8k tCO₂eq by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario, and 2.0k tCO₂eq by total scenario. In addition the effect of electricity saving cost through energy saving has been estimated, and it was approx. 634 million won by green remodeling scenario and appro. 726 million won by behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario. So it is analyzed that of behavior improvement and renewable energy supply scenario would be approx. 12.7% higher than that of green remodeling scenario.