The Dutch CAFE baseline: In or out of line?

The European Commission is constructing a strategy on air pollution within the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme. This strategy will be based on assessments using the RAINS model for different policy ambitions where the CAFE baseline scenario and control strategies are employed. The Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency verified the data in RAINS and the CAFE baseline. In this verification the CAFE baseline was shown to be unsuitable for determining the Dutch position in negotiations for new European air pollution policy (like the NEC review). The Netherlands will have to introduce a national scenario of its own to bring forward the Dutch expectations on future developments. While the RAINS model would seem appropriate for calculating abatement scenarios, contra-expertise will still be necessary during the CAFE process to assess differences in RAINS on calculated abatement costs and emission levels.