PREVISÃO DE INSOLVÊNCIA NO SETOR DE MATERIAIS BÁSICOS APLICANDO MINERAÇÃO DE DADOS 1 FORECAST OF INSOLVENCY IN THE BASIC MATERIALS SECTOR APPLYING DATA MINING PREDICCIÓN DE INSOLVENCIA EN EL SECTOR DE MATERIALES BÁSICOS DE APLICACIÓN DE LA MINERÍA DE DATOS

This study aims to select variables in the sample of companies in the basic materials sector by applying data mining techniques in insolvency forecasting problems using database balancing techniques and attributes selection selection of attributes. From these variables an analysys for the financial implications to explain about the discontinuity of these companies is determined. This is an applied research research with quantitative approach; the aims, is descriptive. The database used was derived from financial statements of companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA between 1996 and 2012. This sector was chosen for their relevance to the Brazilian economy in terms of competitiveness and billing. The selected variables were: EOCpOT, EOAT, GAF, MB, EBITDA, MO and TERFIN. The results showed that companies in this sector become insolvent not only because they lose the ability (financial) to borrow, but also because they lose operational ability to generate cash.