Prediction of coronary heart disease in Europe. The 2nd report of the WHO-ERICA Project. ERICA Research Group

Out of 84,609 Europeans in the ERICA sample (EHJ 9, Suppl I) 18,931 had adequate 6-year follow-up data so that coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality could be assessed in relation to five risk factors (age, cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, body mass index and cigarette smoking) measured at baseline. In view of known differences between North-West and South-East Europe, analysis was performed on a regional basis, but also for Europe as a whole. By applying the multiple logistic function (MLF) analysis, coefficients for the prediction of observed CHD deaths in the four regions were computed. Application of these coefficients permitted a remarkably good prediction of future events, in the sense that over 50% of all deaths occurred in the highest quintile (20%) of the initial multiple risk distribution. By the use of regional ERICA risk-coefficients a realistic ranking of the four geographic regions of Europe in terms of CHD mortality was also achieved.