Review of energy transition scenario studies of the Netherlands up to 2050

Following the Climate Agreement of Paris 2015, the Netherlands has set ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets of at least 49% in 2030, compared to 1990 (Rijksoverheid, 2019), and 95% reduction by 2050 (EZK, 2019). This will require a transformation of the current, predominantly fossil-based energy system towards a sustainable, climate-neutral energy system. The transition towards a climate-neutral energy system has a large impact, not only on the energy system itself but also on society at large. The specific characteristics of this energy transition over the coming decades and the resulting outcomes of this process, however, are still highly uncertain. To some extent, this explains the large, widespread need for scenario studies in order to clarify and enhance our insights into the energy transition over a certain period and the resulting outcomes in a specific target year (e.g., 2030 or 2050). This need has led to a large variety of scenario studies over the past years, covering different energy demand or supply sectors (or the energy system as a whole), different approaches, different issues and different geographical scopes (varying from small islands, districts or regions to countries, continents or even the world as a whole). Besides similarities in scenario outcomes, however, these studies also usually show major differences in scenario results, thereby underlining the uncertainties of the energy transition (rather than addressing these uncertainties).