О генезисе Бачатского землетрясения 2013 года

The M L 6.1 earthquake that occurred on June 18, 2013 in Kuzbass is the strongest seismic event related to mining operations in this region . O pinions about its genesis differ . On the one hand, its hypocenter and most aftershocks occurred directly underneath the Bachat open-pit mine, which suggests that this seismic event was due to anthropogenic impacts . On the other hand, the earthquake focus was located at a depth of several kilometers, which, according to some authors, argues against th e anthropogenic factor – the technogenic change in the parameters of the stress field was insignificant against the lithostatic pressure and, especially, the rock strength ( e.g. [Lovchikov, 2016]) . Our study aims to discover and assess an impact of the mining operations in the near-surface areas of the crust , investigate whether the Bachat earthquake was caused by the mining operations, and clarify which processes in particular were the most probable trigger s of dynamic movement in the Bachat earthquake source . The probable geometrical parameters of the fault plane were estimated from the structural and tectonic conditions of the study area and the published locations of the aftershock s [Emanov et al., 2017]. It is established that seimic events of magnitudes similar to that of the Bachat earthquake cannot be caused by the overall anthropogenic load on the area, and it is unlikely that such a strong earthquake may occur due to the direct effect s of seismic vibrations resulting from mass explosions during the mining operations . Our a nalytical models and numerical simulations , as well as the analysis of seismological observation data show that the most probable factor that initiat ed dynamic movement s in the earthquake source was the extraction of the huge rock volume and its transportation from the Bachat open-pit mine . It should be noted that the size of the zone , wherein the geomechanical initiation criteria are met , is considerably larger than the critical size of a nucleation zone for a M 6 earthquake. However , open -pit mining operations can hardly affect the localization of strong earthquake s ources. Mining operations can only trigger a seismic event that has been already prepared by the natural evolution of the crust.