Utility of the NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© tool and the Surprise Question as screening tools for early palliative care and to predict mortality in patients with advanced chronic conditions: A cohort study

Background:The Surprise Question (SQ) identifies patients with palliative care needs. The NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© (NECPAL) tool combines the Surprise Question with additional clinical parameters for a more comprehensive assessment. The capacity of these screening tools to predict mortality is still unknown.Aim:To explore the predictive validity of the NECPAL and SQ to determine 12- to 24-month mortality.Design:Longitudinal, prospective and observational cohort study.Setting/participants:Three primary care centres, one general hospital, one intermediate care centre, and four nursing homes. Population cohort with advanced chronic conditions and limited life prognosis. Patients were classified according to SQ and NECPAL criteria and followed for 24 months.Results:Data available to assess 1059 of 1064 recruited patients (99.6%) at 12 and 24 months: 837 patients were SQ+ and 780 were NECPAL+. Mortality rates at 24 months were as follows: 44.6% (SQ+) versus 15.8% (SQ−) and 45.8% (NECPAL+) versus 18.3% (NECPAL−) (p = ...