Electricity Case: Main Report- Risk, Consequences, and Economic Accounting

and Acknowledgements 2 List of Publications And Conference Proceedings Supported By This Project 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (pg 5) Goals of the Electricity Case 5 Approaches to Risk, Consequence and Economic Assessment 5 Decision Tool and Illustration 11 DETAILED REPORT (pg 12) Background 12 Importance of Electricity as a Critical Infrastructure and its Vulnerability 12 Proven Target of Terrorist Attacks 14 Interdependencies 14 Risk-Consequence-Economic Accounting 15 Risk 15 Grid Configurations 15 Grid Components Likely to be Disrupted 18 Statistical Analyses of Events Databases 21 Consequences 31 Direct Consequences from Statistical and Case-Based Analysis of Event Databases 31 Indicators of Infrastructure Interdependency 31 Sector Analyses: Electric Power Usage by Business Sector 33 Consequences from Utility Specific Information 34 Economic Accounting 36 Application of Cost Factors to Extreme Scenarios 36 Premature Deaths and Injuries 37 Business Losses 38 CONCLUSIONS AND SCENARIO-BASED DECISION TOOL (pg. 41) Basis for Scenario Construction 41 Electric power configurations 41 Consequences 41 Computations as Illustrative of a Decision Tool 42 Opportunities for Risk Reduction and Risk Management 42 Examples from September 11 42 Improvements in Energy Delivery: Distributed Energy 42 Improvements in Energy Technologies 43 Synopsis 43 APPENDICES (pg. 44) Appendix A. Figures 45 Appendix B. Estimating the Benefits of Preventing Electricity Interruptions by Lester B. Lave 52