Development of a dynamic quantitative risk assessment methodology using fuzzy DEMATEL-BN and leading indicators

Abstract In this study, barriers elements and initiating events of accidents and their risk influence factors were identified and classified according to a developed conceptual model, relationship between the risk influences factors were determined using a fuzzy DEMATEL model, the risk influence factors weight was determined using a fuzzy AHP model and conditional probability table of the risk influence factors was obtained using Roed method. The probability of the initiating events and the barrier elements failure was determined using fuzzy logic. The barrier elements and the initiating events were modeled by mapping bow-tie in Bayesian network. The Bayesian networks of risk influence factors were constructed by mapping the fuzzy DEMATEL outputs in the Bayesian network. Leading indicators were developed for the risk influence factors and their content validity, practicability and importance were assessed using the fuzzy logic and eliciting expert’s opinion using a paired comparison method. Finally, this paper employed atmospheric storage tanks as a case study for explanation and verification of the significant benefits of the methodology developed by this study.