Wheat yield functions for analysis of land-use change in China

CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model is specified and validated for eight sites in the major wheat-growing regions of China. Crop model results are then used to test functional forms for yield response to nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation water, temperature, and precipitation. The resulting functions are designed to be used in a linked biophysical-economic model of land-use and land-cover change. Variables explaining a significant proportion of simulated yield variance are nitrogen, irrigation water, and precipitation; temperature was not a significant component of yield variation within the range of observed year-to-year variability except at the warmest site. The Mitscherlich-Baule function is found to be more appropriate than the quadratic function at most sites. Crop model simulations with a generic soil with median characteristics of the eight sites were compared to simulations with site-specific soils, providing an initial test of the sensitivity of the functional forms to soil specification. The use of the generic soil does not affect the results significantly; thus, the functions may be considered representative of agriculturally productive regions with similar climate in China under intensifying management conditions.