Environmental Impacts of the Brazilian Energy Mix—An LCA Approach to Past, Present, and Future Scenarios

The compositions of the world’s energy mix undergo modifications over time. Fossil resource depletion and the high rates of greenhouse gases related to non-renewable energy-based matrixes influence adaptation processes. Under these circumstances, in 2007 the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) published the National Energy Plan (PNE 2030), which directs the future development of the Brazilian electricity mix. Knowing that different energy sources generate different environmental burdens, the objective of this work was to characterize the potential impacts (e.g. greenhouse gases and land use) of the configuration of the Brazilian energy mix in the years 2005 (baseline), 2010, 2018, 2020 and 2030. Thus, it is possible to understand how the expansion of energy production influences the environmental impacts of the electrical sector. The impacts were evaluated through Life Cycle Assessment, employing the OpenLCA 1.9.0 software, and based on the ecoinvent 3.5 database alongside literature data. The current energy mix’s impact is more significant than it was in 2005 (greenhouse gas emissions, for example, increased by approximately 20%). If the PNE 2030 projections are correct, the impact of the future Brazilian energy mix will be significant than it was in 2005, and as it is today. The main contributing factor to this situation is electricity production by biomass and natural gas. To reverse this scenario, more investments should be made in cleaner sources, especially in wind farms.