Bayesian Vertex Nomination

Consider an attributed graph whose vertices are colored green or red, but only a few are observed to be red. The color of the other vertices is unobserved. Typically, the unknown total number of red vertices is small. The vertex nomination problem is to nominate one of the unobserved vertices as being red. The edge set of the graph is a subset of the set of unordered pairs of vertices. Suppose that each edge is also colored green or red and this is observed for all edges. The context statistic of a vertex is defined as the number of observed red vertices connected to it, and its content statistic is the number of red edges incident to it. Assuming that these statistics are independent between vertices and that red edges are more likely between red vertices, Coppersmith and Priebe (2012) proposed a likelihood model based on these statistics. Here, we formulate a Bayesian model using the proposed likelihood together with prior distributions chosen for the unknown parameters and unobserved vertex colors. From the resulting posterior distribution, the nominated vertex is the one with the highest posterior probability of being red. Inference is conducted using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm, and performance is illustrated by a simulation study. Results show that (i) the Bayesian model performs significantly better than chance; (ii) the probability of correct nomination increases with increasing posterior probability that the nominated vertex is red; and (iii) the Bayesian model either matches or performs better than the method in Coppersmith and Priebe. An application example is provided using the Enron email corpus, where vertices represent Enron employees and their associates, observed red vertices are known fraudsters, red edges represent email communications perceived as fraudulent, and we wish to identify one of the latent vertices as most likely to be a fraudster.