Effect of load growth uncertainty on generation-system expansion planning

This study has examined some of the implications of variations in peak-load growth-rate forecasting uncertainty through a case study for a specific electric utility system. A high- and a low-growth planning scenario was developed and contrasted to a base-line scenario in which the peak-load growth rate was correctly forcasted. The results of the study were developed in terms of engineering economics, generation mix patterns, earnings-per-share performance, average electric rates, and oil consumption. The study has also highlighted some of the potential benefits to be gained through contingency planning for somewhat higher growth rates. 9 figures, 2 tables, 7 references.