Nomograms to predict late urinary toxicity after prostate cancer radiotherapy.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze late urinary toxicity after prostate cancer radiotherapy (RT): symptom description and identification of patient characteristics or treatment parameters allowing for the generation of nomograms. METHODS: Nine hundred and sixty-five patients underwent RT in seventeen French centers for localized prostate cancer. Median total dose was 70 Gy (range, 65-80 Gy), using different fractionations (2 or 2.5 Gy/day) and techniques. Late urinary toxicity and the corresponding symptoms (urinary frequency, incontinence, dysuria/decreased stream, and hematuria) were prospectively assessed in half of the patients using the LENT-SOMA classification. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models addressed patient or treatment-related predictors of late urinary toxicity (≥grade 2). Nomograms were built up, and their performance was assessed. RESULTS: The median follow-up was 61 months. The 5-year (≥grade 2) global urinary toxicity, urinary frequency, hematuria, dysuria, and urinary incontinence rates were 15, 10, 5, 3 and 1 %, respectively. The 5-year (≥grade 3) urinary toxicity rate was 3 %. The following parameters significantly increased the 5-year risk of global urinary toxicity (≥grade 2): anticoagulant treatment (RR = 2.35), total dose (RR = 1.09), and age (RR = 1.06). Urinary frequency was increased by the total dose (RR = 1.07) and diabetes (RR = 4). Hematuria was increased by anticoagulant treatment (RR = 2.9). Dysuria was increased by the total dose (RR = 1.1). Corresponding nomograms and their calibration plots were generated. Nomogram performance should be validated with external data. CONCLUSIONS: The first nomograms to predict late urinary toxicity but also specific urinary symptoms after prostate RT were generated, contributing to prostate cancer treatment decision.