Political ideology: Empirical relevance of the hypothesis of decline

AN IMPORTANT part of the analysis of [Xpolitical systems is an examination of ideologies or belief patterns that condition their operation. In addition to influencing the goals that will be pursued, ideologies have an important effect on the style of political life. Hence, a concern with diverse patterns of ideological belief has become a central aspect of contemporary political science. Since the early 1950's, an increasing number of scholars have undertaken empirical studies of the role of ideology in political life. In particular, many have been concerned with the apparent waning of ideological politics in advanced, industrial societies-a concern which has resulted in a significant body of literature on the "decline of ideology." Over the past few years, however, the decline hypothesis has been attacked by certain critics who have claimed constancy-or even "upswing" -in ideology in all parts of the world. This article examines and evaluates the hypothesis of ideological decline and, in particular, the arguments of its critics. The principal finding is that the criticisms launched against the decline thesis are based on dubious grounds and stem from serious misunderstandings. Perhaps the most alarming attribute of the antidecline writers is their apparent willingness to disregard the empirical significance of the hypothesis in question and to rely, instead, on semantic justification. To do so is to misunderstand some of the most important political changes over the past twenty years. In the pages that follow, we shall seek to show that the relevance of the hypothesis of decline is an empirical proposition as yet beyond the challenge of its critics. I